The turmoil stemming from the US sub-prime property loan market and
tighter credit will have a "far-reaching" impact on the world
economy, the International Monetary Fund said on Monday.
"Downside risks have increased significantly and even if
those risks fail to materialise, the implications of this period of turbulence
will be significant and far-reaching," the IMF said in its latest 'Global
Financial Stability Report'.
The IMF said that since issuing its previous report in
April, "global financial stability has endured an important test" in the
meltdown of the risky US sub-prime mortgage sector that rocked the global
financial system in August.
"Markets are recognising the extent to which credit
discipline has deteriorated in recent years — most notably in the US non-prime mortgage and leveraged loan markets,
but also in other related credit markets," said the 185-nation institution,
dedicated to fostering monetary stability and financial stability.
No resolution
The rapid deterioration in global credit conditions
as risk was re-priced led to "extraordinary" liquidity injections by a number of
central banks to ease market operations, the IMF said.
"The potential consequences of this episode should not be
underestimated and the adjustment process is likely to be protracted," it said.
IMF Managing Director Rodrigo
Rato, speaking in Madrid at the annual meeting
of the Club of Rome think tank, said "these fluctuations are without a doubt
serious, we do not see a prompt total resolution to the credit crisis".
"The losses in the financial markets and bank balances will
take some months to become totally evident," he said.
The IMF earlier this month warned it would be scaling back its growth
forecasts for the United States and the eurozone, in October, amid the financial
turbulence that erupted in August.
In a July report, the IMF had revised higher its projections
for global growth in 2007 and 2008 to an annualised clip of 5.2 percent
respectively, compared with a prior estimate of 4.9 percent.
Markets rocked
The IMF report underscored that the world economy
was experiencing a period of solid growth, especially in emerging markets, when
the downturn in the US housing sector began to be felt in the sub-prime mortgage
sector, where high-cost home loans are given to people with poor credit
histories.
A combination of falling home prices and rising interest
rates has squeezed overstretched borrowers, leading to a sharp rise in
foreclosures.
The disruption in the United States quickly rocked financial
markets in August, as investors became aware of the difficulty of determining
the value of US mortgage-backed securities which were sold worldwide, the IMF
said.
"The rapid transmission of disturbances in one part of the
financial system to other parts, sometimes through opaque and intertwined
channels, has surprised both market participants and the official sector," the
IMF said.
The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and other
central banks pumped billions of dollars into markets to ease the credit crunch.
Recession looming?
Last week the Fed cut its federal funds rate by a
hefty half point to 4.75 percent, after holding the benchmark rate steady since
June 2006, saying it was acting to forestall risks to the US economy from the
financial turmoil.
Some observers have speculated the world's biggest economy
is heading for recession. "The test is not over
yet," Jaime Caruana, director of the IMF's monetary and capital markets
department, said at a news conference. "This impact, to some extent, will be
inflationary."
The report said that "so far, despite the significant
ongoing correction in financial markets, global growth remains solid, though
some slowdown could be expected".
The IMF said it was too early to make definitive conclusions
about the ongoing turbulence, however greater transparency is needed to reduce
uncertainty and a lack of information that is hampering the market's ability to
differentiate and properly price risk.
Ratings agencies should have a more differentiated scale of
ratings for complex products so that investors can better evaluate risk, it
said.
The IMF will update the report on 16 October, four days
ahead of the opening of the annual IMF meeting, Caruana said.
AFP
Article by Veronica Smith
Iafrica.com Tue, 25 Sep 2007

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